Okwekaliriza n’Okuteebereza kw’Omukkati gw’Ebbugumu ly’Okungulu mu Kukozesa Emitetenkanyirizo gya CMIP6 mu Afirika Buvanjuba

Okunoonyereza kuno kwekaliriza omukkati gw’ebbugumu ly’okungulu ogw’ebyafaayo (ogwogerwako wano nga T2m) era ne kwekaliriza engeri T2m gy’ekyukakyukamu mu Afirika Buvanjuba (EA) mu Kyasa kya 21 mu kukozesa emitetenkanyiriza CMIP6.

Okwekaliriza kwakolebwa nga kusinziira ku mbeera y’omukkati, embeera eriwo, n’ebibalo (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, and Taylor skill score).

Olw’okuteebereza okw’omu maaso mu EA, emitetenkanyirizo CMIP6 etaanu egisinga okukola obulungi (nga gisinziira ku nziriŋŋana yaagyo mu kukola ku mukkati gw’ebyafaayo ku bbugumu) ku bitundu ebigabana embeera y’obudde SSP2-4.5 ne SSP5-8.5 bye byakozesebwa.

Okufuukafuuka okw’ebyafaayo kulaga okuteebereza okususse okw’omukkati (mean) buli mwaka mu mwetooloolo gwa T2m mu kitundu ky’okunooneyereza ng’emitetenkanyirizo emitonotono giraga okulamula okutali kutuufu.

Ekirala, emitetenkayirizo CMIP6 gikomyawo ebyembeera eriwo mu kigero ky’ekitundu ekyekaliriziddwa.

Okutwaliza awamu, emitetenkanyirizo egisinga okukola obulungi gye gino:

FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, ne IPSL-CM6A-LR.

Mu kiseera eky’emirundi esatu ekitunuulirwa, Multi Model Ensemble (MME) eteebereza enkyukakyuka nnyingi mu kiseera ekisembayo (2080 – 2100) n’enkyukakyuka z’omukkati (mean) eziteeberezebwa 2.4 °C ku SSP2-4.5 ne 4.4 °C ku SSP5-8.5.

Obunene bw’enkyukakyuka okusinziira ku Sen’s slope estimator ne Mann-Kendall test biraga enkyukakyuka eyamaanyi omuli okuteebereza kwaObunene bw’enkyukakyuka okusinziira ku Sen’s slope estimator ne Mann-Kendall test biraga enkyukakyuka eyamaanyi omuli okuteebereza kwa 0.24°C mu buli myaka kkumi (buli myaka kkumi 0.65°C) mu mbeera za SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5).

Ebyazuulibwa mu kunoonyereza kuno byoleka ebbugumu eryawaggulu mu byamu mu mutetenkanyirizo ogwakasembyeyo ogwa CMIP6 bw’ogeraageranya n’ogwo ogwasooka, wadde nga waliwo ebyagala okufaanaganamu mu bbugumu.

Eemitetenkanyirizo egyolekezebwa Afrika Buvanjuba gigamba nti 2100 gujja kuba n’ebbugumu lingi ddala.

Abanoonyereza bakulaakulanyizza emitetenkanyirizo gya kompyuta nga bagyolekeza Afirika Buvanjuba okusobola okuteebereza obulungi engeri ebbugumu gye liyinza okweyongera 2100 we gunaatuukira.

Obubaka buno bujja kuyamba aboobuyinza mu bitundu okuteekateeka era n’okulaba bwe bagya mu kukosebwa okuva ku nkyukakyuka z’embeera y’obudde, ng’ebbula ly’emmere oba ebibamba.

Ebbugumu lyeyongera okulinnya olw’okubuguma kw’ensi ne kireeta embeera z’obudde embi ennyo nga ekyeya n’amataba, ate nga bino bireeta endwadde era n’okutaataaganya obulimi.

Embeera ng’ezo ezitateeberezeka zizibuwaliza okuteekateeka n’okumanya engeri y’okutambulira ku mbeera y’obudde, kale nno abanoonyereza bakola ku mitetenkanyirizo egiyamba okuteebereza obulungi enkyukakyuka y’embeera y’obudde.

Mu kunoonyereza kuno, abanooneyereza baayagala okuzuula emitetenkanyirizo egiriwo mu kiseera kino egiyamba mu kuteebereza obulungi embeera y’obudde mu Afirika Buvanjuba, naddala mu myaka 2021 okutuuka mu 2100.

Abanoonyereza baawandiika ebbugumu erizze liwandiikibwa mu Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, ne Rwanda ne baliteeka mu mitetenkanyirizo gya kompyuta 13 egiriwo.

Ebbugumu eryo eryawandiikibwa ligwa mu myaka gya 1970 okutuuka mu 2014.

Baagatta emitetenkanyirizo 5 egyali gisinga okulagira ddala ekituufu ku bubaka obubala obuva mu Afirika Buvanjuba.

Baakozesa omutetenkanyirizo ogwawamu okuteebereza engeri embeera y’oubudde gy’enaakyukamu mu Afirika Buvanjuba mu kiseera okutuuka mu 2100.

Baakola okutebereza kwa mbeera za mirundi ebiri:

emu nga tewali nkola mpya zissibwa mu nkola kukendeeza ku nkyukayuka ya budde, ate n’endala ng’enkola ziyamba okugikendeeza.

Abanoonyereza baatebereza nti ebbugumu ery’omukkati (average) mu Afirika Buvanjuba lijja kweyongera mpola mpola ne ddiguli 1 eya Celsius okuva mu 2021 okutuuka mu 2049.

Wabula, baasuubira nti ebbugumu lijja kweyongerera ku mbiro okuva mu 2080 okutuuka mu 2100 ne ddiguli 2.4 okutuuka ku 4.4 eza Celsius.

Era baatebereza nti ebbugumu ly’omukkati lijja kweyongera kumpi emirundi 3 okusinga bwe kiri singa tewali nkola nkola ziteekebwawo okukendeeza ku nkyukakyuka y'embeera y'obudde, bw'ogeraageranya n'enkola eziyinza okukendeezaamukko ku nkyukakyuka y'obudde.

Ebyazuulibwa bino byatutuusa ku mitetenkanyirizo egisinga obulungi ku mbeera y’obudde mu Afirika Buvanjuba, era okuteebereza obulungi ebbugumu erisinga obulungi ery’omukkati okuva mu 2021.

Obubaka buno bujja kuyamba abanoonyereza abanajja mu maaso eyo okwongera omuwendo ku mitetenkanyirizo gy’embeera y’obudde n’okuteebereza okuluubirira ekitundu kino.

Abanoonyereza bateesa okutandika n’okwongera obusobozi bw’emitetenkanyirizo okuteebereza embeera y’obudde esusse obubi, gamba ng’ebyeya n’amataba.

Era bagamba nti obulungi bw’emitetenkanyirizo mu bitundu ebitali bya bulijjo nga ensozi oba ennyanja giteekwa okulongoosebwa.

Okunoonyereza kuno kwakolebwa abanoonyereza okuva mu Uganda, Rwanda, Morocco, ne China.