Kimantawa da Hasashen Matsakaicin Zafin Ƙasa ta Amfani da Samfuran CMIP6 a Gabashin Afirka

Wannan binciken yana kimanta matsakaicin zafi na tarihi (T2m daga yanzu) kuma ya yi nazarin yadda T2m yake sauyawa a Gabashin Afirka (GA) a cikin ƙarni na 21 ta amfani da samfuran CMIP6.

An gudanar da kimantawa bisa ga matsakaicin hali, abubuwan da suka faru, da ma’aunin ƙididdiga (Bias, Coefficient Coefficient, Bambancin Tushen Matsakaicin Square, da kuma ƙimar fasaha ta Taylor).

Domin hasashe na nan gaba a kan EA, an yi amfani da samfuran CMIP6 guda biyar mafi kyawun aiki (dangane da matsayinsu a cikin matsakaicin yanayin zafi na kwaikwayon tarihi) a ƙarƙashin hanyoyin zamantakewar SSP2-4.5 da aka raba da kuma SSP5-8.5.

Abubuwan kwaikwaiyon tarihi suna nuna ƙima na matsakaicin zagayowar T2m na shekara-shekara a kan yankin binciken tare da ƙarancin samfura waɗanda suke nuna rashin ƙima.

Bugu da ƙari, samfuran CMIP6 suna sake haifar da yanayin sararin samaniya na ɗan lokaci a cikin kusancin zangon da aka lura.

Gabaɗaya, samfuran mafi kyawun aiki su ne kamar haka:

FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, da kuma IPSL-CM6A-LR.

A lokacin yanki na lokaci uku a ƙarƙashin la’kari, Multi Model Ensemble (MME) yana aiwatar da sauye-sauye da yawa a cikin ƙarshen loakci (2080 - 2100) tare da matsakaicin sauyin a 2.4 ° C domin SSP2-4.5 da kuma 4.4 ° C domin yanayin SSP5-8.5 .

Girman sauye-sauyen dangane da ƙididdigar gangara ta Sen da gwajin Mann-Kendall ya nuna yiuwar ƙaruwar haɓaka tare da hasashen 0.24°C shekaru goma-1 (0.65°C shekaru goma-1) a ƙarƙashin yanayin SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5).

Abubuwan da aka gano daga wannan binciken sun kwatanta ɗumama da yawa a cikin sababbin samfur na fitarwar CMIP6 dangane da wanda ya gabace shi, duk da irin ƙarfin iska mai guba da ake iya gani nan take.

Samfuran yanayin da aka inganta don Gabashin Afirka sun ce 2100 zai fi zafi sosai

Masu binciken sun inganta samfuran yanayi na kwamfuta da ake da su don Gabashin Afirka domin yin hasashen yadda yanayin zafi zai iya ƙaruwa nan da shekara ta 2100.

Wannan bayanin zai taimaka wa hukumomin yankin tsarawa da kuma daidaita tasirin sauyin yanayi, kamar ƙarancin abinci ko bala'o'i na halitta.

Matsakaicin yanayin zafi yana ƙaruwa saboda dumamar yanayi, wanda yake haifar da matsanancin yanayi kamar fari da kuma ambaliya, wanda hakan yake yaɗa cututtuka da kawo cikas ga noma.

Irin waɗannan abubuwan da ba a iya hasashe suna sa ya zama ƙalubale wajen tsarawa da daidaitawa ga sauyin yanayi, saboda haka masu bincike suna aiki a kan samfura don hasashen sauyin yanayi mafi dacewa.

A cikin wannan binciken, masu binciken sun so gano samfuran yanayin da ake da su waɗanda suka fi yin hasashen sauye-sauye a Gabashin Afirka, musamman a cikin shekarun 2021 zuwa 2100.

Masu binciken sun ɗauki yanayin zafin ne daga Kenya da Uganda da Tanzania da Burundi da Ruwanda a cikin samfuran yanayi 13 na kwamfuta da aske da su.

Ɗaukar zafin ya fara ne daga shekarar 1970 zuwa shekarar 2014.

Sun haɗa samfurori 5 waɗanda suka fi dacewa a kan sauran bayanai daga Gabashin Afirka.

Sun yi amfani da wannan haɗe-haɗen samfurin domin hasashen yadda yanayin Gabashin Afirka zai sauya cikin lokaci har zuwa shekara ta 2100.

Sun yi hasashe na yanayi guda biyu daban-daban:

ɗaya inda ba a aiwatar da sababbin tsare-tsare don sassauta sauyin yanayi, ɗayan kuma inda manufofin suke rage saurin sa.

Masu binciken sun yi hasashen cewa matsakaicin yanayin zafi a Gabashin Afirka zai ƙaru sannu a hankali daga shekarar 2021 zuwa shekarar 2049, da ma’aunin Celsius 1.

Amma, sun yi tsammanin yanayin zai ƙaru da sauri daga 2080 zuwa 2100, da digiri 2.4 zuwa 4.4 ma'aunin celcius.

Haka nan kuma sun kuma yi hasashen cewa matsakaicin yanayin zafi zai ƙaru kusan sau 3 cikin sauri idan ba a ɓullo da wasu manufofi na rage sauyin yanayi ba, idan aka kwatanta da manufofin da za su iya rage saurin sauyin yanayi.

Waɗannan binciken sun gano mafi kyawun samfuran yanayi na Gabashin Afirka, kuma mafi girman matsakaicin hasashen yanayin zafi na yankin har zuwa shekarar 2021.

Wannan bayanin zai taimaka wa masu bincike na gaba su inganta samfuran yanayi da hasashe da suka dace da wannan yanki.

Masu binciken sun ba da shawarar farawa tare da haɓaka ikon samfuran domin hasashen yanayin yanayi mai tsanani, kamar fari da kuma ambaliya.

Har ila yau, sun ce ya kamata a inganta sahihancin samfuran wurare masu rikitarwa kamar tsaunuka ko tafkuna.

Masu bincike daga Uganda da Rwanda da Morocco da kum ƙasar Sin ne suka gudanar da wannan binciken.