Ukuhlolwa nokuqagulwa kwezingakushisa lengaphandle eliyisibalomaphakathi kusetshenziswa imodeli ye-CMIP6 eMpumalanga Afrika

Lolu cwaningi luhlola izingakushisa lengaphange eliyisibalomaphathi ngokomlando (esizobizwa nge-T2m) bese luhlola ukuthi i-T2m iguquka kanjani eMpumalanga Afrika (EA) kwikhulunyaka lama-21 kusetshenziswa amamodeli e-CMIP6.

Inhlolo yenzowa isuselwa esimweni, izinzekokuvama, amamethrikhi esifundozibalo (Ukuchema, Ukuhlobana, iKhofishenti, i-Root Mean Square, kanye nesigcinimaphuzu samakhono sika-Taylor).

Ngokuqagela kwesikhathi esizayo nge-EA, amamodeli amahlanu asebenza kahle kakhulu e-CMIP6 (ngokusekelwe esilinganisweni sokusebenza kwawo ezilinganisweni zokushisa zesilinganiso somlando) ngaphansi kwemikhondo eyabiwe yezenhlalo nezomnotho ezisetshenziswayo i-SSP2-4.5 kanye nezimo ze-SSP5-8.5 zasetshenziswa.

Izilinganiso ezedlule ziveza ukulinganisa ngokweqile kwesibalomaphakathi se-T2m yaminyakayonke esifundeni esicwaningwayo bese kuba namamodeli ambadlwana eveza ukulinganisa ngaphansi.

Kokunye, amamodeli e-CMIP6 ikhiqiza izinzekokuvama zendawo nesikhathi ekusondeleni ebubanzini.

Sekukonke, amamodeli asebenza ukuwedlula onke ami kanjena:

I-FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, kanye ne-IPSL-CM6A-LR.

Ngesikhathi socezu lwakathathu olucutshungulwayo, ingxubemamodeli (i-MME) iqagula izinguquko eziningi ngesikhathi esikude (2080 – 2100) nesibalomaphakathi sezinguquko esimweni siku-2.4°C ku-SSP2-4.5 kanye no-4.4°C ku-SSP5-8.5.

Ubungako benguquko bususelwa kwi-Sen’s slope estimatr kanye nenhlolo ka-Mann-Kendall buveza ukutambekela okukhuphuka ngokubonakalayo okuneziqagulo zika-0.24°C kwishuminyaka-1 (0.65°C kwishuminyaka-1) ngaphanis kwezimo zika-SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5).

Okutholiwe kulolu cwaningo kuveza ukufudumala okukhuphukile emiphumeleni yamamodeli egcinile ye-CMIP6 iqhathaniswa neyayandulela, noma i-Instantaneuos radiative forcing ifana.

Amamodeli obunjalondawo alungiselwe iMpumalanga Afrika asthi u-2100 uzobe ushisa kakhulu.

Abacwaningi balungise amamodeli akhona obunjalozwe akumakhompyutha belungisela iMpumalanga ukugaqula kangcono ukuthi amazinga okushisa engakhuphuka kanjani ukuya ku-2100.

Lolu lwazi luzolekelela abapathi bezifunda ukuhlelela nokumelana nemithelela yezinguquko, ezifana nokuntuleka kokudla kanye nezinhlekelele zemvelo.

Amazingakushisa alinganisiwe ayakhuphuka ngenxa yokufudumala komhlaba, okubganela ezinye izehlakalo zesimo sezulu ezishubile, njengesomiso nezikhukhula kanti kuphazamisa ukulima.

Izehlakalo ezinjalo ezingalindeleki zenze kube yinselelo ukuhlela nokumelana nezinguquko zobunjalozwe, ngakho abacwaningi basenza emamodelini ukuqagula kangcono inguquko yobunjalozwe.

Kulolu cwaningo, abacwaningi bebefuna ukuhlonza amamodeli obunjalozwe akhona angaqagula kangcono kunawo wonke izinguquko eMpumalanga Afrika, ngokubhekisisa kule minyaka u-2021 kuya ku-2100.

Abacwaningi bafaka ukuqoshwa kwamazingakushisa aseKhenya, eYuganda, eThanzaniya, eBhurundi, kanye naseRuwanda kumamodeli obunjalozwe ayi-13 akumakhompyutha.

Ukuqoshwa kwamazinga okushisa kuhambe eminyakeni u-1970 kuya u-2014.

Baxube amamodeli ayi-5 okuyiwona anemba kakhulu emininingweni eMpumalanga Afrika.

Basebenzise le modeli exubile ukuqagula ukuthi ubunjalozwe eMpumalanga Afrika buzoguquka kanjani ngesikhathi kuze kube u-2100.

Benze iziqagulo benzela izimo ezimbili ezahlukene:

Eyodwa la kungekho nqubo entsha esetshenziswayo ukuthiba inguquko yobunjalozwe, enye lapho izinqubo zikuthiba ngokuphakathi.

Abacwaningi baqagule ukuthi izingakushisa elilinganisiwe eMpumalanga Afrika lizokhuphuka kancane ukusuka ku-2021 kuya ku-2049, ngo-1 degree Celsius.

Kodwa, babelindele ukuthi izinga lokushisa likhuphuke ngokushesha lisuka ku-2080 liye ku-2100, ngo-2.4 liye ku-4.4 degrees Celsius.

Baphinde baqagula ukuthi izingakushisa elilinganisiwe lizokhuphuka cishe ka-3 ngokushesha uma kungenazinqubo ezuthulwayo ukuthiba ukuguquka kobunjalozwe, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinqubo ezingathiba ngokuphakathi ukuguquka kobunjalozwe.

Lokhu okuthiliwe kuhlonze amamodeli akhona angocono kunawo wonke eMpumalanga Afrika, kanye neziqagulo zamashingakushisa alinganisiwe ezinemba kakhulu kunezinye zesifunda ngokuka-2021.

Lolu lwazi luzolekelela abawaningi bangomuso ukuthuthukisa amamodeli obunjalozwe kanye neziqagulo ezenzelwe le ndawo.

Abacwaningi baphakamisa ukuqala ukuthuthukisa ikhono lamamodeli ukuqagula izgameko zesimo sezulu ezishibule, ezifana nesomiso nezikhukhula.

Baphinde bathi ukunemba kwamamodeli ezindaweni ezixakile ezifana nezintaba noma amachweba kumele kuthuthukiswe.

Lolu cwaningo lwenziwa abacwaningi baseYuganda, eRuwanda, eMorokho, kanye naseShayina.