Ìgbéléwọ̀ àti Ìgbésókè Iye Ojú Ìwọ̀n Ìgbónágbooru pẹ̀lú ìṣàmúlò àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì CMIP6 lórí Ị̀là-Oòrun Áfíríkà

Iṣẹ́ ìwádìí yìí ṣègbéléwọ̀n ìtàn ojú ìwọ̀n ìgbónágbooru pẹ̀lú ìṣàmúlò (lẹ́yìn T2m) ó sì sàyẹ̀wò ìyípadà T2m lórí Ị̀là-Oòrun Áfíríkà (EA) ní ṣẹ́ńtúrì 21st pẹ̀lú ìṣàmúlò àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì CMIP6.

Ìgbéléwọ̀n jẹ́ ṣíṣe pẹ̀lú ojú ipò, àwọn ìpìlẹ̀, àti ìṣirò igunsígun (ìyàtọ̀, ìbáṣepọ̀ òpó, ìyàtọ̀ ìlọ́po ojú ìwọ̀n, àti àmì ọgbọ́n Taylor).

Fún àwọn ìgbéjáde ọjọ́ iwájú lórí EA, àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì CMIP6 márùn-ún tó ṣiṣẹ́ jùlọ (pẹ̀lú ìpele iṣẹ́ wọn lórí ìtàn ojú ìwọ̀n ìmọ̀lára ìgbónágbooru) lábẹ́ jẹ́ ipa ìpín ajẹmọ́rọ̀-ajé àwùjọ SSP2-4.5 àti SSP5-8.5 jẹ́ ṣíṣàmúlò.

Ìtàn ìmọ̀lára fi hàn pé àfikún-ìṣirò ojú ìwọ̀n ọlọ́dọọdún àyíká T2m lórí agbègbè ìwádìí pẹ̀lú ìba àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì tí ó ṣàfihàn àdínkù-ìṣirò.

Síwájú, módẹ́ẹ̀lì CMIP6 ṣàtúnṣẹ̀dá ààyè àti àwọn ìpìlẹ̀ ọlọ́jọ́ kúkurú láàrin àyíká ibi àkíyèsí.

Lákòótán, àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì tó ṣiṣẹ́ jùlọ nìwọ̀nyìí:

FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, àti IPSL-CM6A-LR.

Laàrìn àwọn ìpín onílà-mẹ́ta tí ó wà lábẹ́ ìgbéyẹ̀wò, Àgbájọ módẹ́ẹ̀lì Olójú-púpọ̀ (MME) ṣàfihàn ọ̀pọ̀lọpọ̀ ìyípadà láàrìn ìparí (2080 - 2100) pẹ̀lú ìyípadà ojú ìwọ̀n tí a lérò ní 2.4 °C fún SSP2-4.5 àti 4.4 °C fún ojú ìṣẹ̀lẹ̀ SSP5-8.5 náà.

Ìwọ̀n ìyípadà tí ó dá lé orí òsùwọ̀n ìgbẹ́nulọlẹ̀ Sen àti àyẹ̀wò Mann-kendall ṣàfihàn ìṣeéṣe àlékún tó lápẹrẹ pẹ̀lú ìṣàfihàn 0.24°C ọdún mẹ́wàá-1 (0.65°C ọdún mẹ́wàá-1) lábẹ́ àwọn ojú ìṣẹ̀lẹ̀ SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5).

Àkíyèsí láti inú iṣẹ́ ìwádìí ṣàpẹẹrẹ ìgbóná tó ga síi nínú àbájáde módẹ́ẹ̀lì tuntun CMIP6 tí ó fara jọ àṣaajú rẹ̀, pẹ̀lú ìjọra ìtanilára òjijì.

Àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ tí a ṣàmúlò fún Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà sọ pé 2100 yóò gbóná síi gan-an.

Àwọn aṣèwádìí ṣàmúlò àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ afẹ̀rọ-ayárabíàṣá-pilẹ̀ tí ó ti wà nílẹ̀ fún Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà láti ṣàsọtẹ́lẹ̀ bí ìgbónágbooru ṣeéṣe kí ó ga síi ní ọdún 2100.

Àlàyé yìí yóò ṣe ìrànlọ́wọ́ fún àwọn aláṣẹ ẹkùnjẹkùn láti ṣètò àti láti mú ara mọlé fún àwọn ipa ìyípadà ojú-ọjọ́, bíi àìto oúnjẹ tàbí àjálù inú ayé.

Ìwọn òtútù ń ga sí i látàrí ìmóorusì àgbááyé, tí ó ń nípa ojú-ọjọ́ tó ga bíi ọ̀gbẹlẹ̀, omíyalé, lẹ́yìí yìí tí ó ń tan ààrùn kálé tí ó sì ń fa ìdíwọ́ lẹ́nu iṣẹ́ àgbẹ̀.

Irú àwọn ìṣẹ̀lẹ̀ tí a kò rè sọ àsọtẹ́lẹ̀ rẹ̀ yìí ń mú kí ó nira láti lè ṣètò àti láti mú ara mọlé sí ìyípadà ojú-ọjọ́, nítorí náà, àwọn aṣèwádìí ń ṣiṣẹ́ lórí àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì tí yóò dára síi láti lè sọ àsọtẹ́lẹ̀ ìyípadà ojú-ọjọ́.

Nínú iṣẹ́ ìwádìí yìí, àwọn aṣèwádìí fẹ́ ṣe ìdámọ̀ àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì àyípadà ojú ọjọ́ tí ó ti wà tẹ́lẹ̀ tí ó dára jù láti sọ àsọtẹ́lẹ̀ ojú ọjọ́ ní Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà, pàápàá jùlọ lórí ọdún 2021 sí 2100.

Àwọn aṣèwádìí kó àwọn ìkásílẹ̀ ìgbónágbooru láti orílẹ̀-èdè Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, àti Rwanda sínú àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ afẹ̀rọ-ayárabíàṣá-pilẹ̀ 13 tí ó ti wà nílẹ̀.

Àwọn ìkásílẹ̀ ìgbónágbooru náà jẹ́ ti ọdún 1970 sí 2014.

Wọ́n ṣe àfiwéra àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì 5 tí ó pé jùlọ lórí àwọn dátà láti Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà.

Wọ́n lo módẹ́ẹ̀lì alápapọ̀ láti sọ àtọtẹ́lẹ̀ bí ojú-ọjọ́ ní Ìlà-Oòrun Áfíríkà yóò ṣe yípadà tí ó bá yá di ọdún 2100.

Wọn sọ àsọtẹ́lẹ̀ pẹ̀lú oríṣìí ojú méjì:

ọ̀kan ní ibi tí àwọn ìlànà tuntun ti jẹ́ lílò láti fa ìyípadà ojú ọjọ́ sẹ́yìn, àti ìkejì láti ìlànà ti fà á sílẹ̀ díẹ̀.

Àwọn aṣèwádìí sọ àsọtẹ́lẹ̀ pé ìwọ̀n ìgbónágbooru ní Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà yóò fàséyìn láti 2021 sí 2049, pẹ̀lú ìwọ̀n sẹ́ńṣíọ̀sì 1.

Ṣùgbọ́ wọ́n retí kí ìgbónágbooru náà ó sáré gbésókè láti ọdún 2080 sí 2100, pẹ̀lú ìwọ̀n sẹ́ńṣíọ̀sì 2.4 sí 4.4.

Wọ́n tún sọ àsọtẹ́lẹ̀ pé ìwọ̀n ìgbónágbooru yóò gbésókè ní kíá ní ìgbà 3 tí a kò bá gbé ìlànà kankan wọlé láti fa ìyípadà ojú-ọjọ́ sẹ́yìn, ní àfiwéra sí àwọn ìlànà tí ó lè fà á sílẹ̀ díẹ̀.

Àwọn ìwádìí yìí ṣàfihàn àyípadà àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ tó dara jùlọ tò wà fún Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfírìkà, àti ìsọtẹ́lẹ̀ ìgbónágbooru tó pé jùlọ fún ẹkùn yìí lẹ́nu bí ọdún 2021.

Àlàyé yìí yóò ran àwọn aṣèwádìí ọjọ́-iwájú lọ́wọ́ láti mú ìdàgbàsókẹ̀ bá àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ àti ìsọṣaájú tí a ti pèsè fún agbègbè yìí.

Àwọn aṣèwádìí dábàá bíbẹ̀ẹ̀rẹ̀ pẹ̀lú mímú ìdàgbàsókè bá agbára àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì náà láti sọ ìsọṣaájú àwọn ìṣẹ̀lẹ̀ ojú-ọjọ́, bíi ọ̀gbẹlẹ̀ àti ìṣẹ̀lẹ̀ omíyalé.

Wọ́n tún sọ pé ìpé-pérépéré àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì yìí lórí àwọn ohun tó ṣòro bí àwọn òkè àti àwọn odò adágún gbọdọ̀ jẹ́ mímú ìdàgbàsókè bá.

Iṣẹ́ ìwádìí yìí jẹ́ ṣíṣe láti ọwọ́ àwọn aṣèwádìí láti orílẹ̀-èdè Uganda, Rwanda, Morocco, àti China.

Àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ tí a ṣàmúlò fún Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà sọ pé 2100 yóò gbóná síi gan-an

Ìgbéléwọ̀ àti Ìgbésókè Iye Ojú Ìwọ̀n Ìgbónágbooru pẹ̀lú ìṣàmúlò àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì CMIP6 lórí Ị̀là-Oòrun Áfíríkà

Àwọn módẹ́ẹ̀lì ojú-ọjọ́ tí a ṣàmúlò fún Ìlà-Oòrùn Áfíríkà sọ pé 2100 yóò gbóná síi gan-an.

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