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Izimonguquko ngokwendawo nesikhathi zokuqubuka kokhuvethe e-Afrika

Zulu translation summary of: The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in AfricaEzra Gayawan, Olawale Awe, Bamidele M Oseni, Ikemefuna C. Uzochukwu, Adeshindola Samuel, Damon P Eisen, Oyelola A AdegboyemedRxiv 2020.04.21.20074435; doi:

Published onDec 29, 2022
Izimonguquko ngokwendawo nesikhathi zokuqubuka kokhuvethe e-Afrika
key-enterThis Pub is a Translation of
The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa
The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa
Description

Abstract The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. Although, the disease appears on the African continent late, it has spread to virtually all the countries. We provide early spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 within the first 62 days of the disease’s appearance on the African continent. We used a two-parameter hurdle Poisson model to simultaneously analyze the zero counts and the frequency of occurrence. We investigate the effects of important healthcare capacities including hospital beds and number of medical doctors in the different countries. The results show that cases of the pandemic vary geographically across Africa with notable high incidence in neighboring countries particularly in West and North Africa. The burden of the disease (per 100,000) was most felt in Djibouti Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. Temporally, during the first 4 weeks, the burden was highest in Senegal, Egypt and Mauritania, but by mid-April it shifted to Somalia, Chad, Guinea, Tanzania, Gabon, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Currently, Namibia, Angola, South Sudan, Burundi and Uganda have the least burden. The findings could be useful in implementing epidemiological intervention and allocation of scarce resources based on heterogeneity of the disease patterns.

Isiqephu: Izimonguquko ngokwendawo nesikhathi zokuqubuka kokhuvethe e-Afrika (https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074435)

Isifinyezo

Isifo esisha sokhuvethe (COVID-19), esidalwa igciwane elicindezela ukuphefumula (SARS-CoV-2) saqubuka edolobheni lase Wuhan, eShayina ngoDisemba/Zibandlela ka-2019. Yize lesi sifo sifike kade ezwenikazi lase-Afrika, sesibhebhethekele cishe kuwo wonke amazwe. Sihlinzeka izimonguquko ngokwendawo nesikhathi zokhuvethe esikhathini esizinsuku ezingama-62 zokuqala kokuvela kwalesi sifo ezwenikazi lase-Afrika. Sisebenzise indlelakusebenza ye two-parameterr hurdle Poisson ukuze sihlaziye kanyekanye lapho okungaveli lutho khona nokuvama kokwenzeka. Siphenya imithelela yamakhono ezinsizakusebenza zezempilo okubalwa kuzo imibhede yasezibhedlela nenani lodokotela emazweni ahlukene. Imiphumela ikhombisa ukuthi ukutholakala kwalolu bhubhane kuyahluka ngokwezindawo e-Afrika kubonakala izinombolo eziphezulu emazweni aseNtshonalanga naseNyakatho ne-Afrika. Umthwalo walesi sifo (esibalweni sabantu abayi-100 000) uzwakale kakhulu eJibhuthi, eThunisiya, eMorikho nase-Aljeriya. Ngokwesikhathi, emavikini amane okuqala, umthwalo wawuphezulu kunazo zonke izindawo eSenegal, eGibhithe naseMorithaniya, kodwa phakathi noMbasa wagudlukela eSomaliya, e-Shed, eGini, eThanzaniya, eGabhoni, eSudani naseZimbabwe. Njengamanje, iNamibhiya, i-Angola, iNingizimu Sudan, iBhurundi neYuganda iwona mazwe anomthwalo omncane. Okutholiwe kungasiza ekungeneleleni kokusebenza ngemibulalazwe nokwabiwa kwezinsizakusebenza ezingandile kususelwa ekuhlukahlukaneni kwamaphethini ezifo.

Isiqephu: Izimonguquko ngokwendawo nesikhathi zokuqubuka kokhuvethe e-Afrika (https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074435)

Isifinyezo

Ukhuvethe lubhebhetheke kanjani e-Afrika

Abacwaningi basebenzise izindlelakusebenza zocwaningo lwezibalo ukubala ukuthi ukubhebhetheka kokhuvethe kudlange kuphi kakhulu ne-Afrika, nokuthi lesi sifo sibhebhetheke masinya kangakanani ezindaweni ezihlukene zezwekazi.

Bathole ukuthi iNtshonalanga neNyakatho ye-Afrika khahlamekzeka kakhulu kunezinye izindawo, yize leli gciwane labhebhetheka ukudlula ezinye izindawo eNyakatho ne-Afrika laqhubekela enkabeni naseNingizimu ne-Afrika. Bathole ukuthi ukuncishiswa kokuhamba kwabantu kudlala indima enkulu ekwehliseni ukubhehetheka kokhuvethe kanye nokwelula ukusebenza kwezinsizakusebenza zezempilo ezentulekayo.

Isifo esisha sokhuvethe (COVID-19), esidalwa igciwane elicindezela ukuphefumula (SARS-CoV-2) saqubuka edolobheni lase Wuhan, eShayina ngoDisemba/Zibandlela ka-2019, lase lifika sekudlule isikhashana e-Afrika kodwa labhebhethekela kuwo wonke amazwe kulelizwekazi.

Abacwaningi baphume umkhankanso wokutholisisa ukuthi ukuba khona kodokotela nezinye izingqalasizinda ezisebenza ngezempilo kuba namthelela muni ekutheni ukhuvethe lusabalala kuphi futhi ngesivinini esingakanani.  Imiphumela ingasiza ohulumeni ukuthi bakwazi ukuyisa izinsizakusebenza ezingandile lapho ezidingeka khona kakhulu.

Ukuqondsisa ukuthi lokhu kwenzeke kanjani, abacwaningi basebenzise imininingwanezibalo zendendlelakusebenza yePoisson ukubala ukuthi ukutheleleka ngokhuvethe kwenzeke nini nokuthi kwenzeke kuphi e-Afrika ezinsukwini ezingama-62, kusukela kumhla ka-14 Febhuwari/kuNhlolanja 2020 kuya kumhla ka-15 Ephreli/kuMbasa 2020. Basebenzise imininingo yomphakathi abayithole enhlanganweni yezempilo yomhlaba, i-World Health Organisation, emazweni angama-47.

Imiphumela ikhombise ukuthi i-Senegal, iGibhithe, neMorithaniya aba awokuqala ukushawa kakhulu amazinga aphezulu okutheleleka kula maviki amane. Bathola ukuthi iJibhuthi, iThuniziya, iMorokho, neAljeriya kwaba ayengamazwe la kwatheleleka abantu abaningi kwabangu-100 000 ezinsukwini ezingama-62.

Lezi zindlelakwenza zokubala zocwaningo asho ukuthi abacwaningi kumele bahlukanise ibanga lesikhathi libe izikhawu eziyisithupha ezilinganayo. Lolu cwaningo lunqindwe ukuswelakala kwemininingo emavikini amane okuqala.Ngakho abacwaningi bathatha amaviki amane okuqala njengeviki elilodwa base belinganisa leli viki eliyinyanga neviki ngalinye kulamaviki asele

Lolu cwaningo lukhombisa ukuthi izivakashi ezazivela phesheya kwezilwandle zize kuleli zwekazi yizo ezaletha ukhuvethe kuqala, okunye kwaba ukungaqashelwa kahle kwemingcele nokungalawuli ukuhamba kwabantu kuleli zwekazi kwavumela ukubhebhetheka kokuthelelana.

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