I-Bayesian spatial modelling yokudlebeleka kwe-Ebola e-Democratic Republic of Congo nge-INLA-SPDE approach

Isifo segciwane le-Ebola (i-EBV) iyisivelo sezempilo zomphakathi esaziwa umhlaba wonke, esivamile eNtshonala nasenkabeni ye-Afrika.

Ukuqonda isifundo sezimpathamhlaba ikakhulu i-dynamic pattern yesifo se-EBV, sihlaziya imininingo yezaziso zezigameko ze-EBV ezigamekweni eziqinisekisiwe kanye nokufa okubikiwe kokudlekelela okuqhubekayo e-Democratic Republic of Congo (e-DRC) phakathi kuka-2018 no-2019, base behlola nolwazi lodlame olubikiwe lokusabalala kwegciwane.

Besebenzisa ngokuphelela i-Bayesian geo-statistical analysis ngama-stochastic partial differential equation (ama-SPDE) asuvumela ukuthi sibale amaphethini ezikhala ephoyintini ngalinye lesizinda sezikhala.

Ukukalekisa amapharamitha kususelwa kwi-Integrated Nested Laplace approximation (i-INLA).

Esikutholile kuveza ukuhlobana okukhulu phakathi kwezigameko zodlame ezindaweni ezithintekayo kanye nezigameko nokufa okubikiwe kwe-EBV, kanye nobukhonza kweqoqo lakho kokubili izigameko nokufa kokubili okusabalalela ezindaweni ezakhele ngezindlela ezifanayo.

Okutholiwe ocwaningweni kubalulekile ekuhlonzeni izizindakuvama, ukuqapha izifo endaweni ethile kanye nokungenelela.

Imiphumela ngo-2018, i-Democratic Republic of Congo yaqinisekisa umqedazwe weshumi eminyakeni ewu-40.

Lokhu kudlebeleka kuwukudlebeleka kwe-Ebola kwezwe okukhulu kunakho konke bese kuba okwesibili ngobukhulu okwake kwaqoshwa emva komqedazwe waseNtshonalanga Afrika ka-2014-2016.

Lokhu kudlebekela kwamanje kubikwa ukuhit kwenzeka endaweni yombango kusukela kudala, lulo cwaningo lugxile ekucwaningeni ukusabalala ngokwendawo kokwenzeka kwe-Ebola e-DRC kanye neqhaza lezigameko zodlame.

Izigameko zodlame ezindaweni ezithintekayo zatholakala ukuhlobana ngokuomthelela nezigameko ezabikwa ze-Ebola, okubalulekile ekuhlonzeni izizindakuvama, kanye nokuqapha izifo kwendawo ethile kanye nokungenelela.

Udlame luqagula ukudlebeleka kwe-Ebola e-Democratic Republic of Congo

Igciwane lesifo i-Ebola (i-EBV) yisifo esithelelana kalula esibulalayo esenziwa wudlame oluqhubekayo ukuthi sibe sibi e-Democratic Republic of Congo (e-DRC).

Abacwaningi manje bayakwazi ukuqagula lapho ukudlebeleka kwe-EBV kuzokwenzeka khona besebenzisa imininingo yezigameko zodlame.

I-Ebola iyisimo esiphuthumayo kwezempilo zomphakathi esamukelwa emhlabeni wonke esivamile ezifundeni zaseNtshonalanga nasenkabeni ye-Afrika.

Ukudlebeleka kwakamuva e-DRC kungokwesibili ngobukhulu osekwake kwaqoshwa eNtshonalanga Afrika.

Kuleli zwe, udlame lwezikhali luletha inkundla evundile yokuthi izifo ezithelelanayo ukuthi zichume bese zisabalala, ngoba izinsiza nengqalasizinda yezempilo kucekelwa phansi, kanti nabantu bayasuswa ezindaweni zabo.

Kulolu cwaningo, abacwaningi babheke ukuxhumana phakathi nokusabalala kwesifo se-Ebola kanye nezindawo lapho udlame lubikwe khona e-DRC ngo-2018 no-2019.

Basebenzise izindlelakwenza zezifundo zezinombolo zisuselwa kwi-theorem ka-Baye, esebenzisa izingcezu zemininingo ezincane ukuqagula ukuthi esinye isigameko singenzeka nini nakuphi.

Basebenzise kahlekahle imininingo ngokuqubuka kodlame ezindaweni ezithile ukuqagula ukuthi i-Ebola ingase iqubuke kuphi okulandelayo.

Ucwaningo luthole ukuhti izindawo ezithintwe izigameko zodlame bezihlatshaniswa ngokuqinile nezigameko ezibikiwe zokutheleleka nokubulawa yi-Ebola, okudlulela nasezindaweni ezakhele.

Abacwaningi baphinde bachazela izigameko nokufa kwe-Ebola lapho imininingo ingaqoqwanga ngenxa yodlame oluqhubekayo.

Okokuqala e-DRC, lolu cwaningo lukhombise ukuthi i-Bayesian spatial modelling ingasetshenziswa ukuhlonza izizindakuvama ze-Ebola lapho imininingo ingase ingabi khona.

Nokho, abacwaningi abakwazanga ukuhlukanisa phakathi kwezinhlobo zezigameko zodlame nokuthi kahlekahle ziba nomthelela kanjani ezinhlelweni zezempilo ezindaweni ezithintekayo.

Abakwazanga futhi ukuqopha imininingo yabo ngezigameko zodlame ngendlela engaqagula ngqo ukuthi ukudlebeleka kwe-Ebola kuzokwenzeka nini.

Abacwaningi baphakamisa ukuthi iziphathimandla e-DRC zihlinzeke izinhlelo zokuqapha izifo nokusabela ezingconywana ezindaweni ezithintekayo, kanye impela nezingxenye zonke zezwe ukuthuthukisa ukuthola ngokushesha nokulawula ukukwehlisa ukushesha kokusabalala kwe-Ebola.