Sifashiyo-temforal dainamis na ɓarkewar annobar COVID-19 a Afrika

Muƙala: Sifashiyo-temforal dainamis na ɓarkewar annobar COVID-19 a Afrika ( https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074435)

Tsakure:

Sabuwar annobar coronavirus (COVID-19) da mummunar cutar numfashi ta coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ta haifar, ta ɓulla a birnin Wuhan na ƙasar Sin a watan Disamba na shekarar 2019. Ko da yake, cutar ta bayyana a nahiyar Afirka a makare, amma duk da haka ta yaɗu zuwa kusan dukkan ƙasashen. Mun samar da Sifashiyo-temforal dainamis na COVID-19 na farko a cikin kwanaki 62 na farkon bayyanar cutar a nahiyar Afirka. Mun yi amfani da samfurin cikas na Poisson mai siga biyu don nazarin ƙidayar sifili da yawan abin da ya faru a lokaci guda. Muna binciken sakamakon muhimman kayayyakin kiwon lafiya da suka haɗa da gadajen asibiti da adadin likitocin a ƙasashe daban-daban. Sakamakon ya nuna cewa cutar ta ɓarke a faɗin Afirka inda ake samun yawaitar ɓarkewar cutar a ƙasashe maƙwabta musamman a Yammacin Afirka da Arewacin Afirka. An fi jin nauyin cutar (mutum ɗaya a cikin 100,000) a Djibouti Tunisiya da Moroko da kuma Aljeriya. Na ɗan lokaci, a cikin makonni 4 na farko, nauyin ya fi girma a Senegal da Masar da Mauritaniya, amma a tsakiyar watan Afrilu ya koma Somaliya da Chadi, Guinea da Tanzaniya da Gabon da Sudanda kuma Zimbabwe. A halin yanzu, Namibiya da Angola da Sudan ta Kudu da Burundi da kuma Uganda suna da mafi ƙarancin nauyin cutar. Sakamakon binciken zai iya zama da amfani wajen aiwatar da agaji na annobar da rarraba kayayyaki masu ƙaranci dangane da bambancin yanayin cutar.

Muƙala: Sifashiyo-temforal dainamis na ɓarkewar annobar COVID-19 a Afirka ( https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074435)

Taƙaitaccen bayani

Yadda COVID-19 ta bazu a Afirka cikin tazara da kuma lokaci

Masu bincike sun yi amfani da samfurorin ƙididdiga don ƙididdige inda cutar COVID-19 ta fi yawa a Afirka, da kuma yadda ƙwayar cutar ke yaɗuwa cikin sauri a sassa daban-daban na nahiyar (Afrika).

Sun gano cewa Yammacin Afirka da Arewacin Afirka ne suka fi fama da cutar gabaɗaya, yayin da cutar ta fi saurain yaɗuwa a Arewacin Afirka kuma ta ratsa tsakiyar Afirka da kudancin Afirka. Sun gano cewa takunkumin taƙaita tafiye-tafiye yana taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen rage yaɗuwar cutar COVID-19 da kuma samar da mafi karancin kyayyakin kiwon lafiya.

Sabuwar cutar coronavirus (COVID-19), wacce mummunar cutar numfashi ta (SARS-CoV-2) ta haifar ta ɓulla a birnin Wuhan na ƙasar Sin a watan Disamba na shekarar 2019, kuma ta isa a Afirka a makare amma cikin sauri ta yaɗu zuwa kowace ƙasa a nahiyar.

Masu binciken sun ƙuduri niyyar samun cikakken bayani na yadda wadatar likitoci da sauran wuraren kiwon lafiya ya shafi inda da kuma saurin yadda kamuwa da cutar COVID-19 ya faru. Sakamakon zai iya taimaka wa gwamnatoci su ware kayayyakin kiwon lafiya masu ƙaranci a inda ake buƙatar su.

Don fahimtar yadda hakan ta faru, masu binciken sun yi amfani da tsarin ƙididdiga na samfurin Poisson don ƙididdige lokacin da kuma inda kowane nau’in cututtukan COVID-19 ya faru a Afirka sama da kwanaki 62, daga ranar 14 ga Fabrairu na shekarar 2020 zuwa 15 ga watan Afrilu na shejarar 2020. Sun yi amfani da bayanan jama'a da Ƙungiyar Lafiya ta Duniya ta ruwaito na ƙasashe 47.

Sakamakon ya nuna cewa ƙasashen Senegal da Masar, da kuma Mauritania ne suka fara fuskantar kamuwa da cutar a cikin makonni huɗu. Sun gano cewa Djibouti da Tunisiya da Moroko da kuma Aljeriya, su ne ƙasashen da suka fi kamuwa da cutar mutum ɗaya a cikin mutane 100,000 cikin kwanaki 62.

Hanyoyin ƙididdiga na binciken na nufin cewa masu binciken dole ne su raba lokacin binciken zuwa cikin lokutan mako guda shida daidai. Binciken ya taƙaita ne saboda rashin bayanai a cikin makonni huɗu na farko, don haka, masu binciken sun ɗauki makonni huɗu na farko a matsayin mako guda, kuma sun kwatanta wannan mako na tsawon watanni da ragowar kowane mako.

Wannan binciken ya nuna cewa matafiya daga ƙetare zuwa nahiyar sun kasance bayan shigo da COVID-19 na farko, amma kuma rashin kula da iyakoki da rashin taƙaita tafiye-tafiye a nahiyar ya ba da damar ci gaba da yaɗuwar cutar.